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[李亦伸專欄] 快艇位列明年奪冠熱門,但我保守評估,洛杉磯之王還是湖人!

湖人交易拿下鵜鶘前鋒Anthony Davis,一時間湖人好像即將「得到天下」。

這是形勢和氣勢,也是LeBron James+Anthony Davis相乘效應,不管看衰看好或樂觀悲觀,湖人都會馬上成為爭冠最熱門球隊之一。在賭盤上,湖人早在確定交易拿下AD之前,盤口早就把湖人排上奪冠第一熱門。

盤口上前五爭冠熱門球隊,除了湖人、暴龍、公鹿、火箭,還有一支很特別的球隊,它是「快艇」。

 

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THAT. JUST. HAPPENED.

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快艇今年夏天擁有近7000萬美元薪資空間,可以簽下兩名球星,上季快艇還是西區第八,季後賽第一輪跟勇士殺了六場,死纏爛鬥讓勇士幾乎脫了兩層皮。

除了薪資空間,快艇還擁有幾個讓人看好的優勢,包括:NBA經營之神Jerry West幕後操盤,Jerry West是昔日打造湖人王朝、勇士霸業總管兼顧問,現在是快艇特別顧問。另外快艇教練Doc Rivers執教能力一直備受推崇,儘管我認為他趨於平凡,過度被吹捧高估。最後就是快艇擁有一票不錯角色球員和天賦,只要能掌握1-2兩名球星加入,快艇啟動成為爭冠球隊,指日可待。

快艇擁有Lou Williams+Montrezl Harrell+ Patrick Beverley三人超級爛仗,Danilo Gallinari+ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander兩名令人期待又有上升空間的中生代和新生代好手,快艇現在只需要加入1-2名球星,確定核心陣容和注入天賦,快艇將會很快成為爭冠級別球隊。

 

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📸 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐭: “One photographic technique to accentuate a specific subject within the frame is called a slow-shutter pan. Combine that with a shallow depth of field (blurry foreground and background) and you can really make your focus point stand out. This photo of Lou Williams shooting while fading to his strong left side not only tells a story about photography, but about Lou. During his rehab from an ACL injury, he developed a brand new style of scoring. Unable to move right without pain, he perfected going left and now has one of the most unstoppable jump shots in the NBA. As he fades from left to right within the frame, launching a perfectly balanced shot over the fingertips of a wispy defender, I pan the camera exactly with his movement and snap the shutter. The result is not only a fun application of the technique, but tells the story of one of the most prolific moves in the NBA. It’s why this is one of my favorite shots from this season.” — @tommyzweibel, LA Clippers Photographer

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目前快艇瞄準的球星包括Kawhi Leonard、Kyrie Irving、Jimmy Butler、Kemba Walker,由於勇士Kevin Durant和Klay Thompson今年季後賽重傷,未來一年可能都無法歸隊,已經不在快艇自由球員獵人雷達。

從帳面、天賦、現有資源和主客觀條件看,快艇充滿無限希望和上升空間,這也是為什麼賭盤盤口和專業人士一致看好快艇,對快艇爭冠前景非常樂觀主因。

快艇確實很有機會,只要他們能簽下至少一名球星,再補1-2名重要配角,快艇有機會成為西區前四等級球隊。

 

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📸 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐭: “One of my favorite parts of this photo series is the chance to share moments that I find interesting, but need more context to be fully appreciated. This photo was captured early in the season when Patrick Beverley, waiting for Doc to address the team during a timeout, got lost in the music. On our way to victory against Minnesota, Pat joined the STAPLES Center crowd’s karaoke session. It’s one thing to know the words to a song, it’s quite another to feel them. For a few seconds during the heat of competition, Pat Bev — the player who embodies the grit and toughness of our team — found himself jamming out to Journey’s “Don’t Stop Believin’”. — @tommyzweibel, LA Clippers Photographer

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看快艇評估快艇,我會非常保守。幾個原因:

1、快艇上季在拆解三巨頭Chris Paul+Blake Griffin+DeAndre Jordan後,不但沒死,甚至還打得更有競爭力,並搶下一席西區季後賽,Doc Rivers執教能力和West操盤功夫+決策+選才得到最大肯定。

快艇團隊合作、累積天賦、教練執教表現都很出色,但快艇競爭力是建立在Lou Williams+Montrezl Harrell+ Patrick Beverley三人爛仗基礎上,一旦快艇得到一或兩個球星,這三名打爛仗球員將會失去一半以上發揮空間和球權。

2、以快艇現有陣容,除非快艇今夏可以簽下兩名球星,否則一個球星還是很難幫助快艇成為爭冠球隊。

3、沒有球星有沒有球星的打法和球權分配,你可以玩命+打爛仗。有球星和核心球員,也必須有不同搭配和戰略,這是快艇和Doc Rivers永遠要面臨的選項和課題。

擁有三巨頭時代的快艇,跟沒有三巨頭的這一年,Doc Rivers帶出不同的球隊和球風,競爭力也都很平庸,籃球是球運、球星、天賦、執教、氣勢的總合,我對Doc Rivers的執教和快艇的魅力、球隊文化,還是少了一些信心和期待。

經過今年夏天,快艇即使簽下一名球星,或者幸運得到兩名二線球星,他們還是只能來攪亂西區,扮演黑馬。

快艇有崛起機會和爭冠機率,只是沒有那麼樂觀,湖人還是會主導西區和聯盟。


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