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雙語閱讀 | Noel來了,Nowitzki會讓出小牛先發中鋒位置嗎?

達拉斯小牛隊將Andrew Bogut和Justin Anderson送往費城76人,迎來了Nerlens Noel的加盟。小牛隊得到了一名很棒的年輕核心。從長遠來看是不錯,落到實處就會發現有一堆問題尚待解決。

The Dallas Mavericks have traded for Nerlens Noel, sending Andrew Bogut and Justin Anderson to the Philadelphia 76ers. Hey, that’s great! Finally, there is a young core coming together! That’s the view from 30,000 feet, though. Down on the ground there are numerous questions that remain unanswered.

最大的問題是:以後誰來當先發中鋒?

One of the biggest of which is: Who will be the Mavs’ starting center going forward?

讓我們把目光轉到1月12日在墨西哥城和鳳凰城太陽隊的比賽,總教練Rick Carlisle讓Dirk Nowitzki代替Bogut出任先發中鋒。這場比賽小牛隊以113比108的比分笑到了最後,從這往後,Nowitzki先發中鋒位置就沒再動過。

Back on January 12, in a game against the Phoenix Suns played in Mexico City, head coach Rick Carlisle chose to start Dirk Nowitzki at center instead of Bogut. The Mavericks won that game, 113-108, and Nowitzki has remained the team’s starting center ever since.

Bogut在他的達拉斯這段時間從未真正融入過球隊,在防守端和搶籃板上影響力猶存的同時,卻在進攻端表現掙扎。在1月3日擊敗了華盛頓巫師隊之後,他曾在更衣室和記者開玩笑說,「我現在在進攻端就像一個巨大的甜甜圈,所以我只能不停地去搶籃板和給隊友掩護。」雖然Bogut那時候還沒有完全讓出先發位置,但是很顯然不能在這場比賽先發登場這事確實打擊到了他。

Bogut never really meshed during his time in Dallas but he remained an impactful defender and rebounder, although he struggled mightily on offense. In the locker room he joked with reporters about those struggles saying after a win against the Washington Wizards on January 3, 「My offense is right now a big fat doughnut, so I’ll stick to rebounding and setting screens.」 Bogut didn’t start that game and it was clear he was frustrated. But he hadn’t completely ceded his starting role yet.

我對球隊把Dirk放在五號位的嘗試保持審慎。考慮到Harrison Barnes在大前鋒位置的持續強勢表現,我特意寫了兩篇文章談談Nowitzki擔任替補的問題,一篇在這,另一篇在這。他有打替補的意願,再加上受開賽以來的傷病所累,這看起來是讓他找回比賽節奏的好方法。

When the team made the switch and opted to play Dirk at the 5, I was skeptical. I’ve written about Nowitzki coming off the bench twice this season, here and here, with the emergence ofHarrison Barnes’ strong play at power forward. In the past he’s mentioned his willingness to come off the bench and with a sore Achilles plaguing him for much of the beginning of the season it seemed like a reasonable way to ease him back into game shape.

先不說Nowitzki更早之前的健康隱憂,統計數據清楚地顯示出Deron Williams,Wesley Matthews,Dorian Finney-Smith,和Barnes這四人和Bogut搭配比Nowitzki出現在中鋒位置要好這一事實。那套陣容在場上時,能夠淨勝對手27分。數據顯示,前一套陣容得到每回合1.194分的同時,將對手的分數控制在0.951分。

Beyond Nowitzki’s earlier health concerns, it was clear, at least statistically, that the regular starting unit at the time of Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Barnes were better with Bogut at center than they were with Nowitzki. That unit, featuring Bogut, had a total net rating of plus-27. This unit also scores 1.194 points per possession while holding opponents to just .951. Those are hard numbers to argue with.

但是我也就是個在網上碼碼字的,最終做出決定的是那位Rick Carlisle。除了我的銀行帳號外所有人都覺得這樣更好。

However, I’m just a guy who types on the Internet. I’m not Rick Carlisle. He’s the one that gets to make the final say. It’s better this way for everyone except my bank account.

在Nowitzki出現在5號位的時間,球隊也處在上升期。這個變動以來,他們取得了11勝7負的戰績,看起來正在扳回開賽季的糟糕戰績。他搭檔著先發控衛Yogi Ferrell在不同的先發陣容中活躍,後者取代了因傷缺陣的Deron。

With Nowitzki at the 5, Dallas has surged. They’ve gone 11-7 since they made the move permanent. And yes, that equates to a surge after the dismal start the team had. In that time, he played with a couple of different starting lineups with Williams being out with injury and the team turning to Yogi Ferrell as the starting point guard.

既然Williams已經被裁了,我們來看看由Ferrell、Seth Curry、Matthews、Barnes和Nowitzki組成的先發五人組戰鬥力如何了。根據nabwowy的數據,這套陣容總共打了111分鐘,每回合能得到1.171分,對手得分是1.102分,淨勝對手22分。數字上看起來跟Bogut當先發中鋒時也差不多。

Now that Williams has been waived, it’s best to look at how the starting five of Ferrell, Seth Curry, Matthews, Barnes, and Nowitzki has done. That unit has put up, in 111 minutes, 1.171 points per possession, per nbawowy, while allowing opponents only 1.102 PPP. They also have a net rating of plus-22. Those numbers are somewhat similar to what the starters were doing with Bogut at center.

所以,既然小牛隊有了Noel,他們現在該做些什麼呢?至少在Barnes和Dirk看來,如果這個問題最終由Carlisle來拍板,則只在現有先發陣容內調整的可能性不是很大。以下是來自我們的朋友Bobby Karalla的報導:

So, what should the Mavericks do now that they’ve acquired Noel? Well, if Carlisle has a say in the matter, and he has a big say, the odds of switching the around the starters, at least from the perspective of Dirk and Barnes, isn’t great, our friend Bobby Karalla reports:

Rick Carlisle讓Dirk回到四號位,並讓Barnes回到三號位的可能性是「不到一半。」讓我們拭目以待。 – Bobby Karalla (@bobbykaralla) 2017年2月23日

https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/834866220268675073

基於這個報導,我猜想Carlisle將保持現有的陣容不變。Nowitzki將繼續擔任一段時間的先發中鋒。經驗告訴我們沒壞的東西保持原樣就好。球隊進入前八的夢想尚未熄滅,說明現狀還不是很糟。

It’s my assumption, based on this, that Carlisle will stick to what’s been working for now. Nowitzki will remain the starting center for the time being. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it the old saying goes. With the team still dreaming of making the eighth seed, they’re not broke yet.

Noel成為球隊先發的前景還在,不妨讓他搭配其他先發打打中鋒試試。根據我們對Carlisle的瞭解,Noel會得到那樣的機會,但不會成為真正的先發。他會在Dirk不上場打球的時候,得到先發的機會。這也是目前來說讓他融入新球隊的最好方法了。那之後又會怎麼樣呢? But still, the prospect of starting Noel remains and he should at least get a look at playing center with the starting unit. Knowing Carlisle, he’ll get that chance but won’t be an actual starter. He’ll spend time with this unit when Dirk sits. For now, that’s likely the best way to integrate him into a new system. What happens after that, though?

如果小牛隊能夠從Noel身上得償所願,肯定會設法給他更多上場時間。他的能力讓他在攻防兩端的表現都有所保障。他是個能在很深的低位得分,並且高水平地完成擋拆的大個子,這恰恰是Bogut在進攻端所不能提供的。

If the Mavs get everything they hope for from Noel, they’ll have to find a way to get him more minutes. His ability to play both sides of the ball warrant it. On offense, he’s exactly what Bogut wasn’t: a big man with the ability to score down low and work in the pick and roll at a high level.

Noel在他這個賽季的有限上場時間內以61.1%的命中率得到8.9分。在籃筐附近三英尺範圍內更是保持著72.1%的命中率。 This season, Noel is posting averages of 8.9 points per game, in limited minutes, with a field goal percentage of 61.1 percent. That number increases around the rim where he’s connecting on 72.1 percent of his shots within three feet.

在Carlisle的進攻體系中最讓他受益的角色是擋拆後的下順者。Noel的76人時期有21.1%的進攻回合中在擋拆後下順。根據NBA.com/stats的統計,在這些回合中,他有57.1%的命中率,並且平均每回合能得到1.10分。擁有這種出色表現的他今年也才22歲而已。現如今大部分NBA球隊都會打大量的擋拆,小牛隊也不例外。他們已經好久沒有一個能像 Tyson Chandler 一樣在既能應對掩護,又能通過掩護製造威脅的球員了。

Where he stands to gain the most in Carlisle’s offense is as a roll man. With the Sixers, Noel was featured as the roll man on 21.1 percent of his offensive possessions. In these he has a effective field goal percentage of 57.1 percent and posts 1.10 points per possession, per NBA.com/stats. Those are impressive numbers, especially for a 22-year-old. Dallas runs a lot of pick and rolls, as do most NBA teams these days, but they haven’t had a player since Tyson Chandler who can operate effectively on both ends.

Noel在防守時會頻繁地與攻擊籃筐的球員對抗,試圖干擾他們的投籃,平均每36分鐘能送出兩記大帽。在他的干擾下,對手在離籃筐6英尺範圍內的投籃命中率只有50.8%。然而在應付擋拆下順的球員方面他還不夠成熟,對手平均每回合以50%的命中率得到1.05分,這方面跟他在防守低位背打時差不多。

Defensively, Noel challenges or alters shots with regularity, averaging two blocks per 36 minutes for his career. Opponents are only shooting 50.8 percent against him within six feet of the basket. He’s not quite as adept at defending the roll man on pick and rolls just yet, however. Here, he allows opponents to score 50 percent of the time and net 1.05 PPP. His numbers are roughly the same in defending post ups.

Noel還年輕,還有很多成長空間,總有那麼一天他會取代Nowitzki成為先發。雖然可能不是現在,也不在這個賽季,但該來的總會來。如果真能像紙面顯示的那樣好,那就挺不錯了。

Noel still has room to grow. That’s a given with any player his age. But there will come a time when starting him over Nowitzki will be the right thing to do. It may not happen immediately and it may not happen this season. But it will happen. If he’s as good as he looks on paper, that’s not a bad thing.

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